New York’s 39th pick, Jack Kayil, is a 6’4” combo guard from Germany, age 20. He previously played for Alba Berlin in the German Bundesliga, averaging 12.2 points, 3.5 assists, and 2.8 rebounds while winning the league’s Best Young Player award. I project his ceiling as an NBA combo guard capable of playing both on and off the ball while helping out defensively with his positional size. We’ll dig into why throughout this piece.
Shot Selection and Mechanics
I want to start with Kayil’s shot mechanics, because they’re genuinely intriguing. He only shot 29% from three, but he took some ridiculous shots that we will see in the film. He owns a high release point, which gives him real variability when shooting through contests, in simple terms, it makes him a good bad-shot shooter. One flaw I’ve noticed is that his shooting hand doesn’t follow through consistently on release, whether that’s a byproduct of the shots he takes or just inconsistent form overall, he will need to clean that up. On balance, I view him as a strong shooter who needs some refinement and consistency.
Kayil fits the mold of a modern NBA guard. He hunts the pull-up three, shows no hesitation in his shot selection, can take step-backs, and clearly understands shot value. However, the downsides are just as obvious, questionable shot selection, including some incredibly deep attempts. It’s mainly the willingness to take those shots that intrigues me in the first place, as he plays without fear. His percentages naturally take a hit given this shot diet, compounded further by a number of grenades, low-percentage attempts forced near the end of the shot clock. On dribble pull-ups, he shot 49-for-185 (26.5%), an extremely low number even accounting for volume, but the shot diet behind it is wildly erratic as we’ve discussed.
I touched on this briefly on my platform; Kayil’s game could benefit from being scaled down a bit, and I don’t mean that as a knock. A shortened, more focused role would likely serve him better than the high volume of pull-up threes he currently takes. Trimming his shot diet could actually elevate his game, raising his three-point percentage by cutting out some of the chaotic shot selection. On catch-and-shoot threes, he made 56-for-176 (32%), not a great number, but a clear improvement over his pull-up volume. Once again, the shooting depth behind these attempts deserves consideration.
Can’t count out Kayil’s midrange pull-up game. Much like his three-point shot diet, the shot selection is rough at times, but he converts far more consistently on dribble pull-ups in the midrange, shooting 43% (43-for-99) on those attempts. That’s a solid number given his overall shot selection, especially considering he doesn’t get to the rim often, only 19.8% of his shots come near the basket. Kayil has a difficult shot diet to replicate at the NBA level, and he’ll need real tweaks and different offensive role to become a strong offensive player. He currently trades rim pressure for a heavy dose of long-distance shooting, notable given that he doesn’t quite excel at creating separation from his defender on his own. He leans heavily on ball-screens to get going, and switching bigs can give him real trouble.
