Round 1 Playoff Prep: Atlanta Hawks
Film Analysis and Data
Welcome to the playoffs. What follows may be one of the most consequential months in New York Knicks basketball history. The stakes couldn’t be higher. Leon Rose went all in for the current roster, and New York’s window isn’t going to get wider, no time than right now is the best time to win. So, to the first obstacle ahead, the Atlanta Hawks. They’ve played the Hawks three times this season, once without Karl-Anthony Towns, another without Miles McBride or Josh Hart, and once with Trae Young in Atlanta. These factors lend a more general scout based on matchups, and tactics we may see, with an in-depth look at macro takeaways from the previous contest.
Cross-match
I want to start defensively, something I don’t do often. Specifically, dig into the cross-match concept that the coaching staff have been deploying. The recent game against Atlanta gave us the clearest preview yet of what this series will likely look like when Onyeka Okungwu and Dyson Daniels share the floor.
Several teams have discovered the same answer to guarding against stretch five, Onyeka Okungwu, put your center on Daniels. The logic is similar to what the Knicks have combated all season with Hart and Towns. Okungwu’s shooting and floor-stretching can drag the big into a coverage, opening up the offense. For New York, that means Towns defending Daniels, and OG Anunoby taking on the Okungwu assignment. The payoff is a defensive structure built around switching, stifling the actions that make Atlanta’s offense dangerous surrounding their shooting big man.
Here's the cross-match playing out in real time. When CJ McCollum comes off Okungwu's ball screen, Anunoby and Brunson switch. Rather than staying attached to his man, Towns sags off Daniels immediately there to scram out Brunson as Okungwu rolls down low.
Atlanta won’t sit still. They’ll have answers, and the most obvious one is adjusting Daniels’ role which they’ve had practice in against other opponents. Expect the Hawks to use him as a screener or a handoff man, forcing Towns into coverage. Towns has to be ready for that, and track Daniels’ whereabouts on the perimeter despite playing off of him, much like a traditional center.
That said, this counter has a ceiling. Daniels is neither a credible floor-spacing threat nor a particularly punishing screen-setter, which limits how much damage Atlanta can actually do with him at the center of the action. Point-of-attack defenders can have a relatively easy time getting over those screens and resetting. If New York stays disciplined and responds to Atlanta’s adjustments, the coverage favors the Knicks.
Slowing Down Jalen Johnson
Since Trae Young’s departure made him the number 1 option, Johnson has played incredible basketball. He has logged multiple triple doubles, and along with a strong finishing game, has improved significantly as a passer. His on-ball percentage has risen this season, with potential assists jumping from 12.4 → 18.8. Normally, a role expansion that large brings more turnovers, but Johnson has done the opposite. In 2025, he posted a 16% passing turnover rate (19th percentile), and despite taking on an even heavier passing load this season, he's cut that figure down to 11.9% (76th percentile). Scoring wise, he does the most damage at the rim and in the short midrange, getting to both places in the 90th percentile for his position.
However, it’s important to note that he is not a strong creation scorer. Explaining why the Knicks have felt comfortable with the cross-match strategy, using a valuable defensive piece in Anunoby to reinforce it, and assigning Hart to defend Johnson. Most of his damage comes from playing in the open space that a stretch big like Okungwu provides, cutting that off can force him into a heavier creator role in the half-court, which is what the Knicks should want.
Notice how the cross-match can directly mute a finishing play-type: his roll-man opportunities. By keeping Towns near the basket, the Knicks allow him to contest at the rim and clean up perimeter errors, rather than him defend a stretch big in 5-out space.
New York will see a lot of attempts from Atlanta to get Brunson into the action with Johnson. Whether it’s from using a Johnson as a handler or a screener in order to get a switch. We see another finishing play-type erased with Towns in the paint on Daniels.
I don’t believe there’s a surefire way to approach the Brunson situation with Johnson, it can be up to the matchups. At times it may be okay to switch and have Johnson isolate out of that and if they can, provide help off Daniels. They can also rotate around him in a hedging or high coverage situation.
Film Review
Let’s say Brunson guards CJ McCollum and the Hawks want to run a flat alignment ball-screen with Jalen Johnson as the screener, they had success in the last matchup having Hart hedge that action:
Hart executes a hard hedge on the ball-screen, trying to avoid the Brunson switch on Johnson. The Knicks can have some fun on the back-end if Okungwu and Dyson are clumped up weak-side. Instead of sending KAT out there to tag/help, send the more active defender in OG and have KAT take Okungwu. In some situations OG does have a longer leash to do certain defensive things on his own, so it’s on him to communicate.
The Hawks flip the screen, and OG still comes over. The fun part about competitive basketball is that Atlanta is surely watching this play and preparing a counter, whether that's repositioning Daniels/emptying out the side (they do that in this game) or instructing the ball-handler to stay aware of the weak side, where Daniels can set a pin-in for the corner man.
Brunson's defense on CJ McCollum could be a real factor. When McCollum looks to feed Johnson, Brunson does an excellent job denying the handoff. The matchup is interesting in its own right, part of the trickle-down effect from the cross-match, though the bigger question is whether McCollum has genuinely lost a step. If he has, that gives Brunson a player he can keep up with defensively, despite McCollum being a talented scorer.
In the possession the Hawks look to empty out and run a ball-screen, a good counter against high coverage. The Knicks can still send taggers weak-side, but the empty action can let Daniels have a little more room to cause some chaos (pin-down, cut etc).
We don’t get to see what happens, Brunson beats McCollum to the sideline and Hart does a good job getting a hand on the ball.
Since Johnson looks to attack the rim and short midrange, while being a low volume three-point shot taker, going under his ball-screens is a tactic I wonder about pulling out. He's only a 29% pull-up three-point shooter, and while they’re not the same players it can be reminiscent of what the Knicks did against Cade Cunningham last postseason. In the playoffs nothing is off the table, teams will weed out the minor details, and a detail like this one I bet doesn’t go unnoticed.
Transition
The Knicks need to play at their own pace, that means executing in the half-court and limiting turnovers. Atlanta wants to push the ball to get in transition and avoid a half-court game at all costs. They have to get back and make those transition opportunities as rare as gold. If I had to pick one thing for the Knicks to get right this series, it's to get back on defense off misses, and match up to their shooters. Nickeil Alexander-Walker should be target number one if you're a wing, and the big has the lane, find him first on the same side of the court.
Karl-Anthony Towns
On the other end of the floor, the cross-match equation flips, and it flips badly for Atlanta. The Hawks don’t have the same luxury of deploying that strategy, and we’ve already seen what happens when you put a big on Towns: it opens Pandora’s box. That is the defining defensive problem of this series for Atlanta, and nothing else is really close. Some will point to the talent on Atlanta’s wing and argue they have the personnel to handle it. I’m not convinced. Jalen Johnson is not someone I trust with that assignment, not with Towns’ size, and Johnson’s own defensive ability or lack thereof. I don’t think their coaching staff wants to make him the answer either as the teams primary offensive engine.
The chart tells an interesting story, KAT's usage isn't directly tied to how often the opposing center is on him, but a slight upward trend does emerge. The raw data makes the case more clearly. When the opposing big guards Towns, his true usage jumps to 47%, a full twelve points above his season average of 35%. When a big is instead assigned to Hart with KAT on the floor, his usage drops to 31%, four points below average. The scatter plot may not scream a direct correlation, but a twelve point swing in either direction is far from noise. There's a real and meaningful difference in Towns’ usage based on who defends him. If we look at the Atlanta games, they are some of his highest usage games of the year. It’s KAT’s series to shine and have big playoff moments.
Building a Playoff Scheme
Looking back at the recent scheme against the Hawks, the goal should be to lean heavily on Brunson-KAT actions, with Brunson cycling on and off the ball. This is the newer system they've been running; more set plays, less freelancing and motion offense. As the playoffs arrive, using Towns in comfortable passing areas while giving Brunson off ball possessions becomes even more important, especially with a disruptive on-ball defender in Dyson Daniels.
Horns Out and Away screens (Relieve Pressure)
Getting Brunson back on the ball while lessening his load is the core of any workable playoff scheme for the Knicks. The physicality ramps up in the postseason, and as mentioned, Daniels will hound him all game. Rather than running regular ball-screen actions with Brunson taking the ball up, Hart or Bridges can take on more ball-handling responsibilities to get up the floor. Given the choice, Hart is my preferred option.
Running an off-screen action like Horns Out to get Brunson back on the ball, then into an angle ball-screen should be a reliable option, if not a late-game safety net. The Knicks should be comfortable executing it too, having used it this season and leaning on it last postseason against a physical Detroit team.
An away screen can be a quicker off-screen action to run in order to get Brunson the ball back. Jamal Shead picks up Brunson full court, and the Knicks opt for Bridges to bring it up only for Brunson to receive the screen into another ball-screen.
Both actions relieve Brunson of ball-handling burden, and the Knicks can run various sets out of either one, they've built on both initiators all season. Another way to attack on-ball pressure is setting ball-screens high up the floor, even into the backcourt.
When building a scheme, the starting point is usually identifying what coverages the opposing team leans on and how to exploit them. Atlanta rarely switches, relying instead on a mix of drop and level coverages. The good news for the Knicks is that with KAT guarded by the center, the specific coverage matters a little less, him and Brunson are dynamic enough to punish whatever coverage the defense decides to throw at them, and when it’s not switching that’s even better. Overall we’re looking for ways for them to work together in the appropriate space and set up in ideal conditions.
Pistol 5
Takes advantage of the Brunson-KAT two-man game and gets Brunson off the ball for a moment. As we saw in their last meeting, the Knicks used exactly that play to close Atlanta out. Anytime New York can run a play through their two stars, it should lead to success.
Double Drag variations
The Knicks used the action-series for 19% of the total scheme, that is some of the most all season for them. It’s not a surprise, it’s the perfect action to run Dyson Daniels through the wringer and attack high coverage. This should be the golden play of the series, and it seemed like the Knicks were aware of that last time out. They can get countless high value shots with Brunson reading the tag man and Daniels behind the play.
Space on Ball-screens, Horns Dive Exit:
Great action to clear the break on pick-and-roll, allowing Towns to pop, roll, or attack switches in space, and create a longer rotation for help defenders. Can also run step ball-screens, ram action, empty ball-screens with the 45-cut, all of these actions attempt to attack with ball-screens utilizing intentional space, and hit the nail on the head in terms of high coverages.
Overview
Offensively, the Knicks have an advantage with Towns defended by Okungwu, and I mean a massive advantage. It opens up the rest of the team, the offensive scheme and KAT. For nearly 2,000 possessions the offense scores 1.05 PPP in the half-court with the big on KAT, that would be one of the best half-court offenses in the NBA next to the Denver Nuggets. That’s a lot for Atlanta to overcome.
The Hawks don’t turn the ball over, they rebound well on both ends, they have a star talent, and make threes. These are qualities that make them a threat to win any night. However, for Atlanta to take this series, they need to either counteract with their own offense or attempt a cross-match. Looking at what their offense would look like against New York’s defense, I’d be surprised if it proves as potent or exceeds New York’s in the half-court. As for a cross-match, I’m not sure how comfortable that is for them given we simply haven’t seen it. This series is the Knicks’ to lose. If they fail to get back in transition, shoot poorly, or get beat on the glass, it will be a long series, whether that means getting pushed to six or seven games, or losing outright.
Good stuff. The Knicks should win this in 5 tbh