Offseason Mail Bag
Full scope of offseason thoughts before the NBA Draft
Welcome to the offseason! This usually marks the great lull in the basketball world, but I see the offseason as an opportunity to get creative with content, there are no games or “deadlines” dictating when something becomes old news. It’ll be a long three months or so, but the content doesn’t stop on my end. We’ll kick things off by answering some questions from you, the fans, almost AMA-style. I try to back up my answers with as much reasoning as possible, aiming for more detail, and hopefully worth your time. Thank you to everyone who sent in questions on X. Let’s get into it.
2nd Apron and Cap stuff
I don’t pretend to know every intricacy of the second apron or the salary cap, but I do have a basic understanding of what New York faces on the cap front. For those unfamiliar, the second apron carries numerous restrictive penalties, teams typically look to avoid it entirely, or dip in briefly while contending before working their way back out.
The Knicks have just above $16.5 million in second apron space. That number matters given the players set to hit the market or those entering restricted free agency, notably Mohamed Diawara. So, before I answer questions, here are my own questions worth considering this offseason on the current roster when it comes to the second apron:
How much of that space does Robinson eat up if the Knicks want to stay below it? Is that even possible?
Does Diawara draw “real money” offers, and does that force New York’s hand?
What does Landry Shamet want in a new contract?
Does Jose Alvarado decline or accept his upcoming player option?
What does the future hold for Ariel Hukporti and the rest of the 2024 draft class (Kevin McCullar, Pacome Dadiet, and Tyler Kolek)?
Do the Knicks ultimately dip into the second apron?
I can’t answer these definitively, but I want to establish a general understanding of the situation New York faces this summer. Every team’s offseason looks different, these are the big questions shaping theirs.
How hopeful are you that the James Dolan apron comments are just him not being aware of how the penalties work/do you think if he doesn’t know and find out would he pay any bill required?
The recent Dolan quote:
“There’s certain things in the NBA that you’d have to be suicidal to do. One of them is the second apron. Cannot go into the second apron. I’ll write as big of a check as possible, but I can’t write a check that goes into the second apron.”
Is Dolan saying the Knicks won’t go into the second apron next season? I don’t believe he is, he explicitly says later in the video that the “decision ultimately falls to Leon Rose.” But framing the second apron the way he did leaves me with two possible scenarios: Like you said, he’s either not fully tuned in to where the Knicks sit in their contention window, given they haven’t crossed the second apron yet, or the decision-makers genuinely believe the best path forward involves staying flexible by remaining below it at all times.
I’m hopeful it’s the former…
Any realistic way the Knicks can stay under the 2nd apron and be contenders?
In short — yes, the Knicks can absolutely contend while staying under the second apron, whether that means losing Mitchell Robinson, Landry Shamet, or both. I suspect this question stems from James Dolan’s recent comments on the radio. New York has the starting lineup intact along with Miles McBride, and potentially Jose Alvarado. They can make other moves as well, but that’s a very good seven to start out with as a team under the 2nd apron. In the end, what the Knicks have going for them this summer is continuity in their starting lineup. I’m not sure about anyone else, but it gives me a sense of ease regardless of what happens outside of that.
How serious do you think the Knicks are in staying under the 2nd apron and if they are serious, what moves could we possibly see?
I’d like to believe they want to go over it and capitalize on the current contention window with all starters practically in the primes of their career, why not go over the second apron for a year or two? If they go below the second apron, let’s say they lose Mitchell Robinson. They’d have to replace him either in the draft, free agency or trade, as well as acquire basic depth…We will get into more detail in other questions.
Notable Free Agents and Trade Targets
Any free agent or trade target the Knicks pursue will likely hinge on whether they choose to go above or below the second apron. If they go above it, they’re unlikely to chase anyone. If they stay below it and lose some pieces along the way, this decision could matter a great deal more.
If the Knicks lose Mitchell Robinson, what bigs in the draft or free agency would you most want to replace him with?
I’ll answer this question with the first part set aside for now, we’ll get to the draft section shortly. I’ll also add the word “trade” into the sentence. If the Knicks lose Mitchell Robinson, there are a few options on the table, but two names consistently stick out to me:
Day’Ron Sharpe
When you talk about a player who can replace him in some areas while offering more in others, Day’Ron Sharpe comes to mind. The only catch is having to pay him at the end of next season too, since he’d essentially be a one-year rental.
Among centers, he ranks in the 100th percentile in deflections per 100 and the 99th percentile in forced turnovers per 100. He also sits in the 92nd percentile in teammate missed offensive rebound percentage (TeamMiss%) and the 99th percentile in offensive rebound quality. He’s on the shorter side for a center at 6’9”-6’10”, doesn’t protect the rim particularly well, and fouls often, landing in the 5th percentile in relative personal fouls, yet still posts a +1.2 defensive DPM, a 1.6 DDARKO, and ranks in the 88th percentile in defensive EPM.
What appeals to me most is his passing skill. Having played in Jordi Fernandez’s offense, which carries concepts that shadow Brown’s system, Sharpe’s transition to a more talented roster should come extremely smooth. Fernandez tapped into that passing ability, helping Sharpe boost his potential assists per 100 from 7.9 last season to 10.2 this year, good for the 89th percentile. The strange problem with Sharpe is that while he passes well and avoids live-ball turnovers on passes (66th percentile), his non-pass turnovers rank in just the 9th percentile.
Goga Bitadze
Both Bitadze and Sharpe I’ve talked about for quite some time. They’re great offensive rebounders that defend leading to high impact outputs as back up, or medially used centers with low contractual obligations. Bitadze posts a 98th percentile offensive rebounding quality, with 85th percentile TeamMiss%. Unlike Sharpe he’s an excellent rim protecter with a -10% difference in FG% at the rim good for 79th percentile and a 6.5 block percentage in a 97th percentile. He’s also not much of a passer on offense, but rather an efficient roll-man and cutter. I believe he does have a level of touch stemming from how well he can finish, so I would have confidence in him fitting into Brown’s system.
How can New York execute both deals?
The Knicks currently carry extra salary in Tyler Kolek and Pacome Dadiet. Pairing those two together, and potentially staying under the second apron gives New York room to take on additional salary. With both Bitadze and Sharpe as rentals, I’d be surprised if either team demands a first-round pick of any kind. I project that a package of a couple second-rounders with the two players could land the Knicks a solid backup big in the form of either one.
What vet min guys are on your radar?
I wouldn’t mind seeing Jordan Clarkson return as I’ve grown to respect him. The in-season transformation at 34 years old, he’s not driven by ego, which allowed the Knicks to make the necessary adjustments with him and the rest of the bench all year. He knows what to expect from Mike Brown and already has chemistry with the core roster, which makes him an option I’d always consider and be down for.
I will throw out names in tiers. Unrestricted guys only, and no centers for the sake of talking about the second apron:
Safe Bets for Minimums
Mike Conley, Jordan McLaughlin, Aaron Holiday, Gabe Vincent, Cameron Payne - Veteran guard presence with regular season upside.
Bruce Brown Jr. - Energizer and handler reliving the days of 2023. New York has had a level of interest before, but he has not been the same player he once was…almost three years ago. He is 29 years old, and for a veteran minimum, might be worth another swing.
In limbo
Bones Hyland - versatile handler who plays with youth and energy. Hyland embodies what a regular-season player looks like. He can get buckets on his own, no doubt about that, but the rest of his game tends to be exposed under a playoff spotlight, his 16 minutes shrank to 11 once the postseason arrived. I’m curious how he gets valued coming off what was otherwise a revitalizing regular season.
Keon Ellis - He’s getting his own segment…
Matisse Thybulle - I still irrationally love the idea of Matisse Thybulle. The offense can get rough, and staying on the floor has been a challenge, I get that. But he’s the ultimate toolbox on defense. He’s Doctor Octopus out there, he’s got eight arms reaching in, causing chaos, making impossible plays look possible.
Javonte Green - Another player they’ve had interest in before. Shot his most threes of his career (3.0) and connected on 38% of them along with his disruptor style of defense.
The list is subject to change as the offseason goes on.
Any chance Keon Ellis signs a minimum deal with the Knicks? A year in NY could help him rebuild his value and set him up for a real payday in 2027.
Given what we’ve seen from him in Sacramento and Cleveland, I think there’s a real chance he lands a minimum deal. He’d make my list of guys worth taking a flyer on at the minimum. Ellis is limited by his inability to do much beyond defend and shoot threes. He offers little connectivity as a 6’4” guard, his passing numbers and ability to break down a defense are simply brutal. He ranks in the 1st percentile in box creation, the 5th percentile in assisted points per 75, and struggles making reads at the rim, sitting in the 6th percentile in rim assists per 100. He’s not generating enough offense for himself or others, whether attacking a closeout or driving (16th percentile in rim attempts per 75). As strong as he is defensively, bordering on great, he’s a black hole in every area that doesn’t involve a three-point shot.
Draft Notes
Not predictions of who we’ll pick (in the draft). I just wanna know your favorites and our current spots no trades.
Favorites in the draft for New York in tiers:
Tier 1: Time to pop more bottles/reaches
Ebuka Okorie - lead handler that pressures the rim heavy and doesn’t turn it over. One of the most underrated freshman players in the class.
Allen Graves - Projects as elite complimentary forward, and small ball big. Strong on the defensive end, racks up stocks with low turnover rates, and pulls down boards among the best.
Jayden Quaintance, Cameron Carr, Dailyn Swain and Labaron Philon
Tier includes prospects with high upside. All sit on the younger end, with the exception of Carr, who is nearly 22. Carr, Philon, Swain, and Okorie give the Knicks added ball-handling and athleticism, two areas of need. Graves and Quaintance both rank among my favorite front-court prospects, again offering plenty of upside.
Tier 2: Good picks in the range
Isaiah Evans - Elite, elite, elite shooter. Adds fun wing depth to what New York already has. Boarders on tier 1, however I have some concerns with his role in the NBA expanding further than a movement shooter. He did show solid growth throughout the season on drives and rim finishing.
Zuby Ejiofor, Joshua Jefferson, Christian Anderson, and Tarris Reed Jr.
Prospects in the projected draft range (24 to 31) that I like. I believe Christian Anderson would be an underrated acquisition for the Knicks. He spaces the floor with the best of them and can operate as an extra handler alongside Brunson, despite the size concerns — concerns I think this season has already debunked. Both Zuby and Reed rank among my favorite center prospects in this range. They’re older and on the shorter side, but NBA-ready and play with real ferocity. Jefferson has grown more appealing the more film I’ve watched on him, backed up by his strong analytical profile. He’s a legitimately sized wing with strong passing ability and real defensive chops, good enough to take a swing on even given his age (22).
Tier 3: Not my favorites, but I trust the front office
Sergio De Larrea - tall handler with a variety of offensive talent, potential draft-and-stash candidate…
Meleek Thomas, Koa Peat, Henri Veesaar, Karim Lopez, Chris Cenac Jr.
Veesaar and Cenac Jr. land in this tier as my less-favored big men compared to Reed and Zuby. Even if both carve out productive careers, my money is on Reed and Zuby over this pair. Cenac projects as too raw a prospect for me at 19 years old, he has a ton of work ahead of him despite possessing legitimate front-court size and athleticism. Veesaar’s offensive upside and translation to the NBA intrigue me far more, given his ability to stretch the floor and his strong touch. My concern with him lies on the defensive end, the risk of becoming a player like Quinten Post, who isn’t a bad player by any means, but leaves something to be desired defensively for a big who isn’t a star. It’s not my favorite type of big.
What would you say are the most important archetypes / roles for us to fill via the draft / FA? Assuming the starters, Miles Mcbride, Mitchell Robinson etc. are all back.
It would need to be some kind of creator if the Knicks retain everyone. New York managed without a bonafide one outside of Brunson for awhile, but the load on him isn’t going to get lighter. I wasn’t a big believer in needing another handler to win a championship, and I was right, but I do recognize the value of someone who can relieve pressure against playoff-caliber defenses. In a scenario where the Knicks go over the apron to re-sign Robinson, drafting a handler becomes the more realistic path. I wasn’t in favor of trading up in this draft given the depth of the talent pool, and adding multiple talent matters to me. But if the Knicks need an extra handler, trading down and grabbing someone like Labaron Philon or Ebuka Okorie would work just fine.
Fun
Would you trade Giannis for Josh Hart, Mikal Bridges, and a 1st rounder?
Money and asset-wise, this trade simply isn’t realistic. No, I would not pursue any Giannis trade. Gutting the roster after a championship isn’t worth it in my opinion. Giannis can land elsewhere, and the Knicks can beat him elsewhere with the same roster intact.
Assuming all the young guys are back, who do you envision having the biggest impact next season between Dadiet, Hukport, Diawara, and Kolek?
I doubt all of them stick around, but I would point to Tyler Kolek. If Alvarado leaves, Kolek likely takes over as the backup guard, and I do think there’s enough trust in Brown for him to handle those minutes. If Alvarado returns, that probably opens the door for Diawara and Dadiet to see some run in the rotation. I’d love to see Dadiet get a chance next season, just to find out what the Knicks actually have in a former first-round pick heading into Year 3.
For the Knicks, how would you balance/prioritize the various objectives of running it back, the 2nd apron, and developing guys like Kolek/Diawara/McCuller?
A good question to end on, and a fitting way to summarize my thoughts on a potential offseason heading into next year. I would 100% go over the second apron. There’s no better time in franchise history to do it. The Knicks just won a championship and have a core sitting in the prime of their careers, it’s time to push the chips in and run it back with this group for another year or two. As for development, we’ve already seen how Brown operates. He experiments constantly during the regular season to prepare for the postseason, and that includes carving out roles for guys on the roster. With a rookie likely joining the team alongside other young players, there should be room for meaningful minutes. This season proved as much, injuries forced several guys into larger roles regardless of plan. It’s a long season, and you need everyone, whether you’re in contention or not.