I do my best to understand the game of basketball, and I want to share that understanding with others. That pursuit eventually led me towards analytics as a way to see the game on a deeper level, not just to lean on catch-all metrics like LEBRON, DARKO, and EPM, but to understand the full picture those numbers try to paint.
The conversation has been louder than ever this season, particularly around players like Jaylen Brown, DeMar DeRozan, and Cam Thomas. At the center of it sits the hottest debate in basketball discourse: the eye test versus the numbers. Here’s my take: the eye test has quietly become a highlight machine. What often gets passed off as “watching film” is just watching great plays or highlights repackaged as analysis. True film study demands far more. It requires a genuine willingness to sit with the unglamorous moments and understand why things happen. While I have tremendous respect for creators who genuinely study the game through film, the broader, mainstream “eye test” has drifted far from actual film watching. A similar misconception has taken place within analytics circles, as there’s a growing misuse of data. Using lineup numbers, on/off splits, catch-all metrics for agendas, ignoring anything that goes against it, and treating it as objective. Basketball, like most things worth studying, are hard to make generalizations about at the end of the day. The game can get messy on a night-to-night basis, and trying to flatten that messiness into a single number is a trap I fell into myself when I was starting out.
To be clear, this debate is minor in the grand scheme of NBA fandom. A lot of people watch basketball purely for the joy of it, with no interest in team optimization or roster construction. That is perfectly fine, but this piece may not be for them. This is for those who care about how teams are built, maximized, and understood. Because the conversation across the league is changing rapidly, and the real answers lie where the film and the data meet.
Andre Drummond - Roster and Role Malpractice
I previously did a piece on Drummond and his skillset since the New York Knicks acquired him via free agency a few days ago, and I noticed that he’s a perfect example of analytical growth within the game and player optimization in the past decade.
Known as one of the best glass cleaners of his generation, Drummond earned two All-Star selections and even landed on an All-NBA team. Dominant on the boards, he was never an efficient scorer. Despite that, he consistently ranked near the top of the league in post-up chances, as the graph highlights, along with posting position highs in rim attempts and short midrange shots. That pattern stays the same almost every season from his second year in the league all the way through his time with the Brooklyn Nets in 2021-2022. Given the sizable volume and consistently underwhelming production on those opportunities over the years, it’s hard to make a case that he was ever a strong post-up player.
Watching Drummond’s post-up and isolation game was a tough watch, and the data backs that up. He tends to burrow his way to the rim on sheer strength alone. In the post, he barely uses footwork or pump fakes to compensate for his lack of verticality and explosiveness. A typical Drummond post-up follows a predictable script: catch the ball, throw up a quick hook, or drive headlong into the defense without much of a plan. A post up game that looks like Drummond’s will not net many points.
His favorite move is the fake dribble handoff, not bad by any means, but when it’s one of the few tools in a limited bag, it becomes predictable and loses its effectiveness. As the “eye test” crowd would say, Andre Drummond doesn’t carry much of a bag, or maybe a fanny pack at best.
The lack of post-up skill, while fairly obvious to the eye, looks even worse compounded by his lack of athleticism and finishing ability. Throughout his heavy post-up years, Drummond ranked in the 96th percentile in rim attempts per 75, yet finished in just the 34th percentile in rim field goal percentage. Among centers, he landed in the 82nd percentile in shots taken. That’s a massive volume of attempts going to a player who finishes wildly, lacks real creativity, and offers little as a passer out of those situations.
Actionable Insights
Drummond’s offensive struggles projected directly onto the catch-all metrics measuring his impact on that end, and the verdict across LEBRON, DARKO, and RAPM lands somewhere between middling and low.
The numbers and film make the case to scale down Drummond's post-up volume, surround him with players who carry the scoring load, and let him play center without a heavy shot diet. The lack of offensive talent around him never gave the Pistons a real chance, but the losing wasn't entirely circumstantial. Drummond spent years doing things he simply wasn't good at, and nobody stopped him. Beyond the post-up and isolation struggles, he never established himself as a reliable cutter or roll man either. In the end, Drummond was a rough offensive player handed an unnecessary scoring leash for far too long.
