I Miss Miles McBride...And Making Threes

Data Visualization

Yes, I do.

The un-blockable high release on his three-point shot, the crowd chanting “Deeeeeuuuuuce,” whether it’s at Madison Square Garden or on the road. Those moments are easy to romanticize, and they’re absolutely worth missing.

But more than that, I miss the player he’s grown into for the New York Knicks. As the season moves along and his absence becomes more noticeable, game by game— nothing is more noticeable than threes clanking off the rim.

Someone Make Threes

Miles McBride is a phenomenal three-point shooter in the half-court. When you look at the roster specifically, he and Landry Shamet operate in their own universe. On a team that takes 39 threes per game (9th in the NBA), you need high-level, high-volume shooters, and for the New York Knicks, McBride and Shamet are those guys.

Beyond that, there’s a noticeable drop-off in three-point points per possession across the rest of the roster. Others haven’t been nearly as efficient in three point chances this season, and they don’t approach the same volume either.

That context helps explain some of the recent shooting inconsistencies particularly when looking at Mikal Bridges and OG Anunoby. Both are good, capable three-point shooters, but they aren’t volume snipers in the same tier. There’s a separation between being a reliable spacer and being a SHOOTER (Yes, in all caps) and that gap has shown up at times. So what does that look like?

Thankfully, I’ve tracked half-court shot quality all season to build this out.

The red lines indicate underperformance relative to shot quality, and to be clear, that’s normal across the NBA. Most players underperform their expected shot quality to some degree. Some teams probably look far worse than this. The point of the visual isn’t to shame misses, it’s to identify who are the most consistent shooters on this team.

That group includes McBride, who is exceeding his shot quality on three point attempts; Jalen Brunson, who does the same; and Shamet, who is by far exceeding his expected output. And then there’s the other side of it. You can see why Jordan Clarkson ended up getting benched. His shot-making relative to quality has been by far the most damaging among the role players, and when you pair that with defensive struggles, it becomes a much tougher case to keep him on the floor.

Another thing worth noticing in this chart is how tightly clustered the three-point shot quality is across the roster. The margins aren’t massive. Clarkson and Brunson sit slightly lower in three-point shot quality, which makes sense given their diet of pull-ups and self-created attempts. Those are inherently tougher looks. Where it starts to raise an eyebrow is with Anunoby. His three-point shot quality dips into more concerning territory. Relative to the rest of the roster, he appears to be taking more difficult threes, whether that’s late-clock attempts, semi-contested looks, or shots he’s forcing a bit out of rhythm.

New York’s points per shot on three-point attempts have actually been higher than expected since Miles McBride went out. But that may be skewed by outlier performances, like the game against the Philadelphia 76ers, when they knocked down 20 threes.

So it’s not that they can’t shoot without him. It’s that the margin becomes thinner over larger samples. Especially during stretches like the current four-game run where his absence is felt more. The consistency, the volume, the gravity he provides as a spacer, those are the things that stabilize the offense when the hot nights regress back to normal.

Get Well Soon

Add in this factor and you get a high-impact player alongside your stars.

In fact, McBride’s impact has been so strong that he ranks in the 97th percentile in on-court net rating for his position at +11.4. A significant portion of that value comes on the offensive end, where the Knicks are +9.0 points per 100 possessions better with him on the floor, a figure that lands in the 98th percentile.

For a complementary guard, that level of impact is not just solid, it’s elite-tier support production, and it mainly starts with his shooting.